17 October 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has missed 5730 again and came close to 5638-5630 support band. We have seen definite signs of weakness with stiff resistance at 5700 and 5730. Will it breaks 5630 today?

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It was surprising to see the market falling with rapid intensity from higher levels yesterday. There were no big reasons for sell off. Our market slipped with almost all global market was going higher. This kind of fall comes when market men think that they have fulfilled their apatite. If this is true then next question is that is it possible @ 5700 of Nifty? Let us do not be in hurry. We need to see follow up trades. After a long time FII were net sellers of Rs 204 Crores.

Technical charts is still confirming for weakness. I am already repeating the importance of 5730 and 5630 from past few trading sessions. Now we have to watch for the reaction at 5630. It will be important to see if it breaks 5630. We may have some intermediate support at 5580 levels but final target for the fall can be only at 5500 levels.

There is a visible H&S pattern on Nifty daily charts. You can read those on the given chart. It is explained with Elliott wave theory also. It is important to note the as long as 5630 holds, we can only speculate about the break on down side. I say, let it convert into reality. I am sensing that many short term traders would have placed stoploss just below 5630 or below 5600. So it is for sure that market will turn violent on that kind of break down.

What’s if market open higher? Looking on SGX NIFTY, it seems that we will open little higher. Of course not as strong as SGX is hinting. On higher opening also, Nifty is likely to face stiff resistance at 5700 levels first and then at 5730. I do not think that stocks can change its behaviors in one day only.

There are many stocks which are trading at monthly low or near to monthly low. Stocks like Reliance and Infosys are examples. Take a note that both are considered as blue chip of the market and both has declared its result in past few days. Somehow I am feeling that market wants to say something in advance. I can able to sense those in coming few days. My point is to watch out for follow up selling if comes today.

Yesterday, it was updated for S&P 500 for a bounce towards 1460. It has saved support of 1424 and moved towards 1460 although it is still missing target as dot. Well, those bounce was expected but came in a rapid way. Take a note that it has stiff resistance at 1475 levels which may remains untested in any bounce.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar