12 October 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has saved in the mentioned support to 5638 to 5630 levels. Life for this rebound will depend on up coming quarterly numbers. Technical resistance will be at 5732.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I had mentioned the support to 5638 to 5630 few days back. It was also quoted that break below 5630 will take the nifty down towards 5500. Well, Nifty has bounced from 5636 and rebounded strongly backed by massive short covering and buying in banking stocks. It was another set of reforms which has helped the sentiments. Question is that is it really changing anything?

I still feel that charting is suggesting that we need to wait for the cross of 5730-5732 resistance zones to bet for any further strength. A pullback from 5736.95 came and there are chances that it will end near 5730. Suppose if it manage to sustain above 5730 then we can expect levels of 5780 to 5815 levels.

Opening is expected be influenced with Infosys quarterly numbers. One must note that the support of 5638 to 5630 will be a valid support for today’s session. There might be the week end factor also. Do take a note that we have Reliance numbers to come on Monday market hours.

I have discussed about S&P 500 few days back. I said that failure of the cross of 1475 will result the yearly top. There is a technical support at 1424 to 1418 levels. Now it is at 1432 levels. So upcoming few trading sessions will be very important US market.

I have already raised enough question market on QE 3. Now, it seems that market is also sensing that it is actually not going to fulfill the purpose. I can conclude that US people are busier with US president election while they should be thinking about economy. I am sure that many people might know the actual problem. If they know then they will surely going to react on some time.

European market is also not very comfortable after ‘unlimited bond buying’ program. I have just one view that policy makers have bought some time to face the problem. Time is coming closer and we may expect sharp reaction in coming days. It is equally true that we have not got any kind of technical alarm yet.

So, for us, watch out for quarterly numbers of Infosys and HDFC bank. There will be another set of IIP data coming today, which might be negative again.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar