09 October 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: High was 5815 which was just close to my mentioned resistance of 5810. Close below 5750 is concerning. Earning season will be litmus test.
You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
We got the desired fall at the break
of 5750 support levels. Technical charts are suggesting for short term decisive
support at 5638 to 5630 levels. I have already said this earlier too that
market need to make some adjustment before earning season. I do not have any
reason to believe for good numbers and guidance.
Firstly, we have got constant poor
GDP data in past many months so quarterly numbers may not be good. On other
hand IMF reduces forecast for India
Technical indicators are looking more
viable now. I studied on RSI and quoted in past few days. I gave important to
my third sell signal. We have seen the expected dip. We must note that it was
first day of weakness given by RSI and it need to sustain for many more days. It
is giving me a sense that whenever market goes higher; it will get selling on
those higher levels.
I am concerned about the technical
charts of many more index blue chip stocks which are looking on concerning
before results, example is Reliance. There are few ways to take today’s market:
-
It may open higher by 25-30 points,
say @ 5700 levels. Then it may fail at 5725-5730 zone at the max. Cross over of
5750 can able to generate the retest of 5800 levels.
Second way is to look for lower side
break. It can go to re test 5638-5630 zone. Close below 5630 will generate the
target for 5500 in coming weeks. We must note that Indian market has too many
gap up in past one month of trades. On other hand, all Asian market is trading
higher. If follow up selling comes in Indian market then fall is unavoidable
towards 5638-5630 zone. India
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