13 August 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It can be dull but rise will be just too tough above 5378. Expected support will be at 5296 and then at 5278. Can we expect broader trading range? May be not.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

A dip from 5378 was expected but it can be concerning if it breaks 5278 levels. I am not expecting this market to crack in a big way. It will be again a slow moving week and range might be limited. There are something which is not looking good for rise even after ‘reverse H&S’. Wave theory suggests that if wave 1 is equal to wave 3 then it cannot be a rising five waves. So I am marking 1,2,3 as probable a,b,c.

Take a note that it is very important to make manual marking to identify this kind of caution. Automated soft wares are not showing this caution yet.

Our prime minister is saying that we should not believe Moody’s rating. Right, why do not you talk about inflation? PM has said last year that ‘inflation will cool off to 6%. When will those days come and what were the steps you took to curb inflation? Answer is nothing. Reader must think that even now our policy makers are not accepting that we are heading towards troubles. Economy will have to pay a very heavy price for this kind of negligence. Please wake up.

I know that we are just a dining room analyst and hardly anyone rising above question. I will keep on raising my voice.  IIP figures are concerning from last year itself, now at (-) 1.80%. Look at even SBIN result and its NPA.

It is strong money flow which are saving stock price and there might be some other factors but policy making is still at its worse phase. If it continue like this then we will see doom days. I have predicted for GDP @ 5% earlier and I have predicted for food inflation @ 15% or higher. This will not be the worse, if things goes on concerning note that we will see a sharp shoot up in WPI inflation too.

Wave development: -

Nifty has a low at 5032 on 27^th July 2012. As of now we can sense that there is a beginning of new wave which probably is going to be a rising wave. Take a note that we have seen a completion of up wave which has started from 4770. It is named as 1-2-3-4-5-a-b-c in above chart. On 3^rd August 2012, we got a low of 5164.65 which is exactly 38.20% against the rise from 5032 to 5246.

This is encouraging with few challenges on higher side. Every wave trend has some relation with its previous wave or waves in terms of ratio. I myself have said that this is going to be most unreliable rise looking the reason of rise but when I have to work with charts then I am forced to keep those away. I can tell you that charts are still saying that I am not wrong in a big way. Magnitude of upcoming wave will be lesser compared to past few waves.

Charts are saying that if we manage to close above 5279 then we can conclude for the formation of ‘reverse head and shoulder’ pattern. It will have n line @ 5279. You can say for the rise which should be equal to 5279 – 5232 = 247 points. It can give me a target of 5526. Well, it is looking easy but it will not be easy. We can say,

Beginning point of wave = 5032.40

Wave 1 = 5246.35

Wave 2 = 0.318 times of wave 1 = 0.318 times of (5246.35-5032.40) = 5164.65

Those who are bullish in their nature should keep their fingers cross for 5279+.

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