You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Some how we slipped before 5343 and hit the technical levels of 5260 (~5258) and then bounced to cross above 5343 yesterday.

Now, even 5300 will act as strong support. As long as we are staying above 5300 we have a chance to test 5378 and then at 5409. I must add that it is going to be a complex rise if comes.

Today is most crucial day; if we manage to close above 5343 again then we may see the beginning of fresh moves. Will it come? I will trade long only if it sustain above 5343. Take a note – I am already saying that until it breaks and sustain below 5260, I cannot claim for reversal of the wave.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

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