13 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Close below 5260 is giving target at 5160 then 5128. Resistance will be at 5275. Expect fall even after flat opening!!!

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It has broken and traded well below 5260. Well, it has opened scope of fall towards 5160 and then at 5128. Resistance will be at 5175 levels.

Sooner or later, we will visit 5000 marks once again. Rising wave has finally seen completion with top of 5^th wave at 5348 (I was expecting it to end at 5343).

I am still quoting that we may have possibility of choppy trading if market stands positive. So, we need to deal this market will full care. OPTIMISM OVER REFORM IS DRIVING FORCE. It has to end very soon. I am not expecting anything from government.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

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