12 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Failure of 5343-5348 can turn the sign of weakness from higher levels. Repeating again that 5260-5257 is the final support.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Yesterday, I said that as long Nifty is standing above 5300 we can have rise. Look at yesterday’s low, it is just at 5300.25. Break below 5300 should give us 5257-5260, which I have already discussed in past.

On higher side 5243-5348 will act as stiff resistance. I am already saying from past many days that no matter how many choppy days we have but final outcome will be fall. Unrealistic expansion of 5th wave is very difficult.

I am not optimistic towards Technology companies. What ever are the net profit figures but market should react negatively towards their guidance.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Praveen Kumar

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