29 June 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We may expect beginning of wave ‘a’ anytime now from levels below 5194 - 5209. Sell on rise, SGX is hinting for 40 points higher start. Do jump to buy or sell immediately.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

It seems that Dr. Manmohan Singh is back to action and work. There are some outcomes over GAAR which may try to give some sentiment boost up for FII. Lots of clarification has yet to come.

Out come of euro summit – will again be nothing. I have lesser to believe and higher reason for ‘not’ to believe. I will take as it comes.

It is derivative expiry and we must just focus on technical charts. Waves are as following: -

Wave 1 – 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 2 – 4898.95 to 4847.70 = 051.25 points (Corrective down)

Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5190.20 = 324.50 points (Up)

Wave 4 – 5190.20 to 5041.70 = 148.50 points (Corrective down)

Wave 5 – 5041.70 to 5194.60 = 152.90 points (Up)

(Wave 3) = 2.525* (wave 1) ~ 2.618*(wave 1) – This is key to plot this five wave. You cannot plot anywhere you want. You cannot violate basic rules to plot waves. This is most correct wave plotting in my view. More over, - (Wave 5) ~ > (wave 1) – a required condition. Break and trade below 5080 will surely push us lower any day any time.

For 29 June 2012 – trading strategy –

SGX is hinting for opening @ 5190+. Take a note that it is against the fall on Nifty july month future in last 15 minutes. So do not assume that Nifty will see that kind of opening what SGX is hinting.

I am quoting things for Nifty (Not for NIFTY July future). If Nifty comes above 5190 then short Nifty with stop loss of just 20 points (say, resistance @ 5209, from how many days I am saying?). Then wait for second half, which may be bad.

In the above chart there is a charting formation, which is known as diamond chart formation. 80% of the time it favours bears. So the top of 5^th wave may/will not see extension. Even if it comes it will not see any greater extension. I will be surprised if it comes at 5250-5300.

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Praveen Kumar

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