18 June 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expecting extension above 5125 to continue for either @ 5176 or @ 5209. Do not give too much importance to Greece news or RBI credit policy review.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Important development of charts –

• Nifty has 1.618 times retrenchment from 4770 = 5176 (Against the fall from 5020 to 4770).
• Nifty has 38.20% resistance @ 5209 (from 5630 against the rise from 4531 to 5630). 

No matter how strong is news flow but wave theory and ratio analysis is suggesting that we cannot be on extra ordinary side unless we really stand tall above 5209. My views for those levels are as –

5176 – Greece news will push us towards these levels, already expecting in morning minutes.

5209 – We need to see good wording from RBI to breach this level. (What can bring it? We need 25 bps repo rate cut and 50-100 bps CRR cut). It has yet to be seen.

I am already trying to avoid trades above 5100 on short side and not ready to catch either long trade in this zone. Very same way as I avoided shorting @ 4800 zone.

We may see opening above 5176 which will keep the scope open for 5209 but those may not be as the way market is expecting. Suppose if we cross 5209 then we can expect the levels of 5240 on intraday basis. Elliott wave target can be as high as 5372 if we really able to see extra ordinary power on the chart but I cannot see those coming as of now immediately.

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Praveen Kumar

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