On 17 May 2012 , it was quoted,
“INR – It will see pause in fall before hitting 55 against $. Well, sooner or later we will hit 56.50 and then 60 also. (Do not blame others, we are responsible for those).”
On 18th May 2012 , it came very close to 55 but turn shy near to those. Question remains same, is it the beginning of strength in India
Look the cycle. From last months it was just kept on trading weaker although there is no significant fund out flow. This is not looking normal. I must say that many Indian companies have to suffer a lot, especially steel stocks.
Technical charts are suggesting for support @ 55. Real trouble will begin after that.
Any single crossover of 55 will push it towards 57 (61.80% line). Panic low as push is as low as 60 in coming months.
It must be worry time for Government of India but as usual policy makers are still not serious. They prefer to blame Greece
I am still unable to suggest you that we can get some strength or not. Immediate levels to watch will be at 53.75.
Why one should take this study seriously? I can simply tell you that we will have severe consequences of forex market movement on equity price too.
What the percentage probability to hit 57 against USD? Well, Just on Friday when I quoted for support of 4790 for NIFTY, it rebounded from 4788.95. So, cross of 55 will give me that kind of confidence.
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Thanks & Regards,
Praveen Kumar
Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile number – 09893369889
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