NIFTY: 24 May 2012: As of now it is almost double bottom-with second bottom higher. As long as 4789 hold, its buy near to 4800-4830. Expect Nifty coming close to 4880. Cross over will add strength towards 4912 < 4930 < 4956. (UDS/INR= 56.25/56.50/57?)

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

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Intraday updates :2:25 pm (4886)
It was a good one hour from 11:30 to 12:30 for bulls. Then next hour goes in favour of bears. Now we are at mysterious point of trading. Charts as still suggesting for recovery as long as 4853-4850 hold for NIFTY spot. We may expect soft trading move towards higher side only. Will we go near to 4912? Let us see. I have to take fresh trading decision yet. Suggest for traders, never be a compulsive bear in any bearish market as rising impulses are the past of trading system.

Next update : Closed for the day
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Intraday updates :1:30 pm (4865) chart updates

(Click on image to see enlarge view).
Five wave consolidation is very typical formation and well know in Elliott wave theory. on 5 min chart it was better visible (although you can get same in 15 min chart also. Explanation is given in chart itself. Even in my pre- market updates I have quoted supports as 4830 and resistance @ 4912. Both are working fine as of now. I took profit near to 4900 and now not adding anything. USD/INR is still my concern.Trade less in this kind of market. Fresh support may emerge near 4850 and then 4830. We cannot say anything about the life time of current mild recovery from 4803.

Next update : probably at 02:30 pm (Last update)
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Intraday updates :12:30 pm (4902)
What an hour it was. Nifty shoot up from 4848 to 4907 and Infosys shoot up from 2338 to 2382. I am sure you must have enjoyed the rise. As said, this is not a market for short as long as 4789 hold. I will buy in dip as long 4874 hold. Few traders has asked me for intraday chart, If I find time then I will try to upload in few min.
Next update : probably at 01:30 pm
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Intraday updates :11:30 am (4859)
Finally after 2.15 hrs we got the cross of 4854 and it is giving good signs to move towards 4880 to 4900. As informed an hour before, Infosys (2338 to 2358) turnout as first stock to attract buyers. Hope to get simple rise. I am already hesitant of shorting from yesterday.

Next update : probably at 12:30 pm
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Intraday updates :10:30 am (4836)
Nifty is still almost dead. It will give you feeling to trade but actually there is no trade. Take a quote, "Rather than knowing when to trade, it is even more important to know when not to trade". Be stock specific. Infosys may add fewer gain. Support - still valid @ 4803 and resistance @ 4853-4854.

Next update : probably at 11:30 am

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Intraday updates : 9:32 am (4843)
Nifty has opened above 4867 but practically from 9:16 onward, high was at 4853.35 only. , which was yesterday's high. It will be choppy with resistance @ 4853-4854. Support will remains @ 4803 and 4789.
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Nifty has saved 4789 levels and forming ‘Double bottom’ pattern as of now.

As long as 4789 hold, I will not act on short trades from lower side. I have already quoted this in my yesterday’s intraday updates. (This article will be updated every hour during market hours; do not miss to read latest updates).

Ratio analysis has one major important support as of now,

• 4790 = 76.40% from 5630 against the rise from 4531 to 5630. We must be opening near to this one.

I have already quoted for the retest of 4790 which is looking to end with an almost formation of double bottom. I must quote this also,

“We are still not out of threat, we seen to stand tall above 4956 (sandwiched high) to bet for confirmation for short term bottom. Will it happen so easily?”

We must remember that whenever we got short term low in the zone below 4800, it always come with excessive of pessimism. I am still scared for further fall but who knows that I might also be the part of those pessimistic thoughts.

(INR vs USD – My updates were released when it was 54.43 and now it is has tested 56.22. This drama seems to have a bitter climax. I will update more at suitable time. I have quoted this earlier too and repeating that this is the most distractive force for Indian Stock Market as of today. Our market has tried to show better relative strength yesterday).

Suppose if it breaks 4790, then you can expect levels of 4766 > 4740 and hen 4700 > 4685.

We must note that recovery sustains from 4789 to 4956 only and the respective retrenchment will be in action in coming few days. It is now the short term range for the market.

Do I need to mention Greece situation? It looks like a done deal for its exit from euro zone but I can tell you that it will not be so easy. Germans can speculate but it may not happen.

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

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Praveen Kumar

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