NIFTY: 23 May 2012: Ready to re test of 4790 again. Further failure will push lower towards 4766 > 4740. Weakness in India Rupee will create further pressure and panic in the Stock Market. (No one can do anything now to save INR, all has given up their hand)

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Nifty has again failed at 4956, at a dot resistance.

This is again forcing me to mention fewer old support studies, which was derived by ratio analysis. These are as follow: -

• 4790 = 76.40% from 5630 against the rise from 4531 to 5630. We must be opening near to this one.
• 4766 = we have seen a vertical dip from 5125 to 4903 few days back. 61.80% further dip from 4903 will end up at 4766
• 4740 = which is the reaction of actionary wave from 5136 to 5379. Take 1.618 times from 5136 or 2.618 times from 5379. It will give us 4740.

I have already quoted this yesterday too, “I am still warning. We are not out of threat of retest of 4790.”

INR vs USD – INR is slipping below 55. Just imagine if it go to hit 57. I must add that those breakout has occurs. Technical charts are suggesting that by any chance if we break 55.25 then no one can save it. Are we heading towards FCCB defaults? Yes, we may be.

It is advisable to be on short side on trade for the retest of 4790 first. We will face stiff technical resistance at 4880 to 4900 levels. In the above chart have quoted two level as 4685 and 4520. It may take some time but those have greater chance of coming as of now.

We must note that recovery sustain from 4789 to 4956 only and the respective retrenchment will be in action in coming few days.

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Intraday updates (9:30 am)
NIFTY pausing @ 4830. Unexpected is nothing. Why 4830? I had mentioned this in past also.

• 4830 – I consider a wave from 5630 to 5136, both figures are well known for every single trader. 1.618 times of wave A is suggesting for support at 4830.  

It seems that it is going to hold for first hour of trades. Let us see. I am not adding any short as long as this level hold. In my view break of this 4830 is very obvious but when, that matter most.

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Intraday updates (10:44 am)
NIFTY breaking 4830

• One must note breakout on two basis, one is price breakout and other is time breakout. Question is are we going to test 4790 or not? 
• You can open 5 min intraday chart for NIFTY SPOT and watch out for close below those and that must be sustaining to conclude anything. I am watching for momentum and intensity. We may have soft fall of few points but not decisive. 
• 1 USD = Rs 55.86 (Where is RBI?)

Its hard to answer but, traditionally, it is choppy first half. little up or down but it is not moving. It is just not suitable to trade. Market may be dull till 12:30 or even 1:30 pm.
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Intraday updates (11:50 am)
NIFTY standing @ 4810

• As said, it was a soft fall below 4830 but we must accept that there is nothing panic like situation as of now. Nifty has a support @ 4789. Already suggested earlier for move near those. (Near to those - cannot be defined as its something which is beyond the scope of speculation). 

I am not on trade as of now, near to support. I am preferring to be in wait and watch mode only. 
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Intraday updates (12:20  pm)
NIFTY standing @ 4838

• When it was not in panic like situation and moving near support, we should not have traded and I follow my rules. Nifty hit at low st 4803.95 and recovering. Above write up was enough to suggest you not to short as levels were running beyond the scope of speculation. 

I have added long on index/NIFTY FUT @ 4800 and few selected stock. Let us see.
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Intraday updates (12:45 pm)
NIFTY standing @ 4833

• Probable pattern - double bottom with one @ 4788.95 and other @ 4803.95. Second bottom (today's) is still high. We can see confirmation only if NIFTY stand tall above 4850. 

As of now we are not out of dangerous zone and levels. INR hitting near 56, this is my prime concern as it is capable of destroy any recovery in any minutes. May GOD bless Indian economy. _____________________________________________________________________________

Intraday updates (02:00 pm)
NIFTY standing @ 4816


We are back to the same levels again as of morning. Nifty was just able to to hit a high at 4853 for few seconds and few attempt. As said earlier, "INR hitting near 56, this is my prime concern as it is capable of destroy any recovery in any minutes".

When our Finance minister blame Greek for all bad happening in economy then what can you expect. Problem seems to be much deeper than what it seems. We are at lower levels again. Supports for NIFTY stand @ 4803 and then @ 4789. We must accept that market try (I am saying trying, no idea how can it try) to refuse many negative cues, like weak INR and weak European trades
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Intraday updates are closed for the day

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Praveen Kumar

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