NIFTY: 17 May 2012: Do not short at these levels. Elliott wave theory is hinting for a pause right now but volatility will continue.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

What was quoted yesterday?

I have already explained that we are now at most important support at 4830. It seems that we will see a move towards 5000 as of now.

Ratio analysis is suggesting few important levels.

• 4830 – I consider a wave from 5630 to 5136, both figure is well known for every single trader. 1.618 times of wave A is suggesting for support at 4830.  
• 4336 – It is 2.618 times of wave A. Do not afraid, we will not see those levels right now. I am just quoting as these are technical levels suggested by Elliott wave.

So many traders were shorting yesterday and many of them have forwarded their short. One must focus on above chart and try to understand the pattern generated by Fibonacci retrenchment.

Fall from 5630 to 5136 has generated a Fibonacci series resistance. Look at how beautifully it was designed to forecast NIFTY.  

• We hit a low of 5136 on March 29.
• 5379 – This level was tested on April 3 while 50% retrenchment was giving resistance at 5383.
• 5342 – This level was tested on April 19 while 61.80% retrenchment was giving resistance at 5324.
• 5279 – This level was tested on April 3 while 76.40% retrenchment was giving resistance at 5253.

If I follow the above pattern then I can conclude for good support at 4830 and it seems that market should try to show confidence at this support.

I was expecting bounce in past few days but none has sustained more than 24 hours. We must be close to a bounce which should sustain for 2-3 days.

I cannot conclude about magnitude of rebound and I cannot even conclude that how long can it sustain. I am sure that will be in better position to explain after today’s trading.

Strategy – Buy with stop loss at 4830 and NIFTY FUTURE with stop loss at 4820. My rebound target is near to 5000 levels. Let us see. We are not supposed to see 4800. (I may be wrong but this is what waves are indicating in my view)

It is not looking like to cross 5040 in any bounce but Nifty should come closer to 5000 levels. It is also true that we have see fall again from those levels also. One must note that correction is integral part of any trading direction. If we are falling in weakness then also we have see some correction.

I was watching news channel yesterday and listen finance minister’s quote.

I heard that our respected finance minister has blamed Greece for fall in Indian rupee and fall in stock market. If you believe and listening those then you must and must know that we are falling due to our own problems. Blame higher current account deficit which is due to higher borrowing by Government of India. Who has to pay for government inactiveness? You, me and your children. Politician must stop dreaming and blaming now.

If someone tries to point out politician they all start feeling burning and start coming in front of camera with their claim that it is disrespect of parliament and constitution. Look at what these elite 545 are doing. Believe me or not but we are in recession. Stock price cannot reflect everything in economy.

I am sure that only handful of people believe me. 90% traders/investors and expert were saying about new all time high just two months back.

INR – It will see pause in fall before hitting 55 against $. Well, sooner or later we will hit 56.50 and then 60 also. (Do not blame others, we are responsible for those).

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

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Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889