NIFTY: 08 May 2012: Nifty rebound will face stiff resistance @ 5171. If rise comes then session will be choppy.
It was an
expected rebound from the zone of 4980 to 5000 levels but it was really much
sharper than my expectation.
Yesterday's
rebound may not have great life ahead. We have already done too much in
intraday rise. Nifty will have stiff resistance at 5200. I will watch out for
5170 to test for short trades.
On Friday
when Nifty lost 120 points, FII were on buy @ Rs 428 crs. Yesterday when we
recovered by 120 Points, FII were on sell side with Rs more than 620 crs. It
means that rise was surely governed by short covering or weak hand buying.
(Something is wrong somewhere to believe for further rise).
I have
already suggesting this in my previous article. Quoted as’
“In
between, Nifty deserves a bounce but question remains same about magnitude and
period. We will see a bounce but no bounce will sustain in coming days/weeks. Depending
on the bounce I will join shorting again.”
So it
seems that time is very close now as we have already rebounded more than 2%
from 4988. I have already explained that a dot support was at 4986.
Major
technical levels will be as given below.
Consider
than fall from 5279 to 4988 and then make these calculations. I am giving these
from 4988.
- 50% = 5133
- 61.80% = 5167 (Hence giving
5170 as stiff resistance/Previous panic bottom too)
- 76.40% = 5209 (May not be
tested sooner. Only cross above this levels can govern rise)
It is 13th
wave break down and it may not be easy to reverse trend sooner and with this
much ease.
Depending
on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you
can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.
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Thanks
& Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
Mail id –
Praveen@viecapital.com
Mobile
number – 09893369889
2 comments
After hitting 5630, we have seen 4 three waves (a-b-c) development. So it was total of 12 waves and then we have seen a formation for 13th wave which has broken on downside to hit 5000.
waves are as - (a-b-c)-(a-b-c)-(a-b-c). you can count is as (1-2-3)-(4-5-6)-(7-8-9)-(10-11-12) also.
Fibonacci series are as follow- 0,0,1,2,3,5,8,13,21... keeps on adding last two.
So breakout wave to get direction should be either 3rd,5th, 8th or 13th (This is the base of EW).
We hit 5171 on wave 3rd but saved (Down)
Next was 5th wave end up @ 5233 (Down)
8th was to break high @ 5379, again failed to advance above supply line (Up)
(Hence I termed this market as ranging market few weeks back)
Final break were suppose to come on 13th wave, which is just the beginning of new wave with minimum count as a-b-c.
We got a fall of wave a- end at 4988.
Let us see next. Thats the wave wave run in nature and stock market as well.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar