NIFTY: 04 May 2012: Fresh down wave begins and fall may continue. Watch out 5155 and 5135 for supports. Nifty may not save 5135.

I took short @ 5285 then booked yesterday for some bounce to short again. Well, no bounce came and I am forced to initiate short @ 5215 again.

Finally, Nifty has closed below 5190 with a low at 5180. I have already quoted for the target in the range of 5200 to 5180. Now charts are suggesting for the test of 5155. It is almost clear that we may retest 5135 if trades sustain below 5135.

There are fair chance for the break of 5135 levels this time. Question must be how?

Look at above chart.

Elliott wave progressions are always simple but many a time it is very tough to understand those. Till now we have seen four a-b-c waves after visiting high @ 5630. It is giving three wave counts which is the result of a ranging market.

Every wave has average life of 12 days and it is always alternating its nature. Means one is up then next is down and it goes in this way. (This is the reason that you are feeling that market is directionless but in fact it is well designed development by nature itself).

So, currently from May 2, 2012, we have seen the development of new wave which must be reverse in nature of the past ascending wave. It means we will see a development of down wave from 5279. My worry is the contracting nature of wave range. It seems that falling wave must be comparable to the immediate past wave.

So, it is just a decisive time but in order to understand the magnitude of fall, I must wait for few more data.

For today, I am expecting the test of 5155. If we spend time below those then we can re test 5135. Will it hit 5080? Well, that I can decide after seeing the reaction at 5155 to 5135 only.

Please note that we are again on decisive phase from ‘ranging’ to ‘trending’ market. Trend can be downside.

Depending on market condition we will release intraday updates too. Till that time, you can post your views also so that I can present better result for you.

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Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

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